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10 of Junio
Según cuenta la Biblia, Joseph, undécimo hijo de Jacob, acumuló maíz en las tierras de Egipto en previsión de los siete años de hambruna que estaban por venir. Desde entonces hasta hoy, las cosechas y materias primas han sido almacenadas y los comerciantes han buscado sus ganancias especulando con la oferta y la demanda de estos bienes, una práctica a menudo condenada éticamente a lo largo de la historia.
Cada vez son más las voces que se alzan contra la especulación de bancos de inversión, hedge funds, inversores institucionales, etc. como responsables de buena parte de la inflación en el petróleo y los alimentos. Entre los defensores de esa idea podemos encontrar postulantes tan diversos como la OPEP o el Senado de EEUU, cuyo Comité de Comercio se está planteando limitar la participación de los grandes inversores institucionales en los mercados de commodities. El pasado martes este panel escuchó con atención la ponencia del liberal George Soros, defendiendo esa misma tesis.
Recientemente The Economist publicaba un interesante artículo cuestionando tal planteamiento, que animo a nuestros lectores a comentar en este foro: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11453090
12 of Mayo
Al escribirse estas líneas el barril de petróleo (West Texas) acaba de sobrepasar los 126 dólares, alcanzando su enésimo record consecutivo. Si bien ya es posible hablar de máximos históricos en términos reales, esto es, teniendo en cuenta la inflación, todavía queda cierto recorrido al alza si se tiene presente en esa comparación la evolución en el tamaño relativo de la renta mundial. Un reciente estudio de Deutsche Bank calcula que en el pico del precio del crudo de 1980 el gasto global en petróleo ascendió al 5,9% del PIB mundial, y concluye que el precio actual debería escalar hasta los 150 dólares por barril para que la factura global fuera de un importe equivalente hoy día. Desafortunadamente, no parece algo improbable.
En los últimos días hemos podido escuchar pésimos y autorizados presagios al respecto. Chakib Jelil, presidente de la OPEP y ministro de Petróleo de Argelia, afirmó recientemente que el barril de crudo podría llegar a los 200 dólares si la divisa estadounidense seguía depreciándose. Por su parte Arjun Murti, director general y analista de Petróleo de Goldman Sachs, también apostó hace unos días por un umbral entre 150 y 200 dólares, aunque a diferencia de Jelil defiende que es el encarecimiento del petróleo el que colabora en la depreciación del dólar, y no a
6 of Mayo
I think many of us working in the energy field, tend to view a promising future for an energy system in which a large base of distributed renewable energy facitlities will provide head/cold and electricity to buidlings, in many cases cutting down distribution losses, and where renwable facilities produce hidrogen which then is used to move road vehicles.
Yet, revolutions are difficult to predict. Possibly they can only be explained expost. These days the famous biologist Craig Venter is providing reasurance that in a matter of months the first forms of truly synthetic life might come out of a lab. These developments could open the door to the design and mantufacturing of taylor made organism. Venter himself says that he envison manufacturing a bacteria that could convert CO2 directly into an hidrocarbon, thus virtually solving at once both the emissions problems and the supply of fuel. Could this be true? What would be the economics of such a process? Certainly if this happens this would be a true breakthrough that would affect all our lives. Apparentyly we only have to wait a few months to find out!
25 of Abril
El pasado martes concluyó el 11th International Energy Forum, una iniciativa constituida en 1991 con el fin de impulsar el diálogo entre países productores y consumidores de petróleo y gas. El evento reunió en Roma durante dos días en torno a 60 ministros de la energía, 50 representantes de organizaciones internacionales (FMI, OPEP e IEA –Agencia Internacional de la Energía–, entre otras) y directivos de 40 grupos del sector energético mundial.
Las conclusiones alcanzadas fueron las previsibles. El problema, a corto plazo y con visos de quedarse: nada garantiza que el precio del petróleo detenga su escalada, ante una demanda imparable de energía que pone en riesgo el crecimiento, el medio ambiente e incluso el suministro de alimentos; la oferta (OPEP) se lavó una vez más las manos, responsabilizando a la especulación, impulsada por el debilitamiento del dólar. La solución, a largo plazo y con perspectivas poco halagüeñas: en palabras del director ejecutivo de
24 of Abril
Hace unos días se celebró en Bangkok la primera de las cuatro rondas de negociación internacional sobre cambio climático que tendrán lugar durante 2008, arrancando así el programa de trabajo que se acordó el pasado mes de diciembre en Bali. "The train to Copenhagen has left the station", exclamó a su conclusión Yvo de Boer, secretario ejecutivo del United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, curiosamente en línea con el título del post publicado en diciembre en los blogs del IE [1]
9 of Abril
Companies that make direct use of natural resources are nowadays frequently confronted with situations in which they need to make a decision about exploiting or not resources critically located in pristine areas, such as Alaska, Antarctica or any of the few remaining pockets of rain forest. A good example is the oil and gas exploitation that has been going for the last two decades in the tropical forests of South America (Ecuador, Peru and others). In such situations, company leaders might face the dilemma of either trying to increase shareholder value by exploiting those resources, of course both within legal and ethical limits, or respond to a more diffuse kind of moral expectation by stakeholders elsewhere and give way to a competitor to exploit the resources.
At any rate, in practical terms, the result would be that neither the governments of the countries involved nor the business community would find an incentive enough to simply stop a preserve untouched those unique spots, which somehow represent to us the bio history of our planetary evolution. Of course, the governments involved could quite rightly argue that western economies have for centuries depleted their own natural resources and that now it is not fair that ask others to do the sacrifice that they do not do. At least not for free.
When confronted with this kind of situation some people think of eco tourism could be an alternative away to generate income for the communities and countries involved. Yet, eco tourism by its own definition has to be kept within a small scale and cannot, with a few honorable exceptions, generate enough alternative cash.
That was more or less my own troubled conception, and have many times wondered if we could find market mechanism that would bring the power of the financial and industrial powers of the world to work for preservation. The new round of the climate change discussion started at Bali last year started to put additional light into this kind of issues. But one the first, and most impressive pure market economy instrument I have seen, and I must say that I really captured by the concept, can be found at http://canopycapital.co.uk/. Just a few days ago, Canopy Capital entered into a partnership with the Iwokrama International Centre in Guyana to measure and place a financial value on the “Ecosystem Services” rendered to the word by the Iwokrama’s tropical forest. The idea is that somehow the economic community would then find reasons to pay for those services and that the income stream would deter any intent to destroy the forest. Canopy Capital intents to do this by creating some sort of certificate that companies and others would like to buy.
One way for this to happen, would be that as companies evolve their Corporate Social Responsibility programs into more articulated and sensible actions they could find value in communicating to their stakeholders that they are supporting the forest.
Another way would be for governments elsewhere to allow the cost of these certificates to deductible for our income tax reports. In Spain, the current tax regulation only allows you to indicate generally to which kind of organization you want your donation to go (either church or NGOs). I would very happily buy Iwokrama certificates if I could deduct the cost from my income statement. It seems to me that it would be money well spent.
I hope these folks at Canopy Capital succeed.
